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Scenarios for the future
What are scenarios and why are they useful in our quest to support dialogue processes? Scenarios offer an alternative environment in which today's decisions may be
played out. They are neither predictions nor strategies: they are descriptions of possible futures with an emphasis on events and trends. Scenarios are designed to highlight opportunities and risks inherent in
specific strategic issues.
They are therefore a powerful way to expose the thinking around issues of mutual concern and to explore ways of facing them. Essentially therefore, scenarios are
projections of alternative pathways into the future that explore the dynamic interaction between the social, cultural, political, economic, technologic and economic forces operating within a given context (such as a
nation or local community).
Scenario building is much more of a process than a product. The overall impact of the scenarios is a function of how deeply they are able to penetrate into the
thinking and formal processes of government as well as conditioning public opinion to consider much more deeply what choices exist for the country as a whole. The scenarios are intended to begin a process of
reawakening peoples interest in actively shaping their future and taking charge of their socio-economic and political destiny.
Through a moderated process of dialogue and exploration by the participants, a range of possible outcomes for the country or community will be projected with a
view to enabling people to think differently about the future.
To the extent that this process includes competing interest groups, political agreement can be achieved and can help distinguish between the certain and uncertain
developments of the future. Scenarios can help define appropriate policies and options as circumstances change. Finally, if those who manage processes are involved in building the scenarios, their ability to react
to changing circumstances is improved and successful implementation of agreed policies more likely. The key implication of scenario building is that the future can be shaped by the decisions and actions of
individuals, organizations and institutions.
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