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Stories about possible futures
The team foresaw four possible outcomes depending on the answers to four crucial questions:
Will the confusion and inertia of recent times thwart efforts to transform both the economic models and reorganize the politics and institutions of governance in
Kenya? If so, the status quo is maintained, tension is heightened and Kenya will fracture into regional and ethnic enclaves with new systems of government within them. This is the scenario of decline and
disintegration labelled El Niņo.
Will the transformation concentrate on reordering the economy alone and postpone agreements on needed changes in the political structures and environment? If so,
the gains of the economic transformation will not last for a long time as political tensions will re-emerge after a while and will require sorting out if the gains are not to be lost. This is a scenario of initial
rapid gains but full of inequalities and instability labelled Maendeleo.
Will the transformation be long drawn, lasting for most of the next decade and focussing on institutional reorganization and the creation of democratic and locally
accountable institutions? If so, though responsive institutions will emerge, Kenya will not achieve far-reaching economic transformation and poverty might actually increase -- a powerful ingredient for instability.
The is the scenario of institutional reorganization labelled Katiba.
Will there be a definite departure from destructive politics? Will the incumbency realize that its position is untenable and will it reach a political settlement
with key adversaries? Will a reorganization of institutions improve representation and participation that reflects the diversity of Kenya's people? Will this be accompanied by radical transformation of the economy
to spur growth and distribution? If all major actors engage in this transformation, Kenya can achieve inclusive democracy and growth. The is the scenario of simultaneous and inclusive reforms of both the economy and
major institutions labelled Flying Geese.
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