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The Kenya Scenarios Project was divided into two distinct phases as follows:
Phase One:
The first phase was all about constructing the 'picture of now' (understanding trends over the past 15-20 years) and appreciating desired visions of the future
(hopes and dreams). This was facilitated by a process of interviews and research. The research identified the key trends and driving forces of the past, and projections for the next 20 years made.
Two workshops
were held during the first phase:
Research Design (October 28-31, 1998) -- Nanyuki, Kenya.
This workshop set the scene for the
research and the project overall. It was at this workshop that the organizing question for the project was framed: "How will Kenya's social, political, economic and cultural systems evolve over the next twenty
years?"
Using the Research (April 20-24, 1999) -- Nyeri, Kenya.
This workshop entailed a detailed
review of the research data gathered as well as highlighted key facts and ideas to emerge. It also tested ways in which the information gathered could be used to support the scenario building process.
Phase Two:
The second phase of the project consisted of the scenario building workshops which brought together representatives from political parties, governments, private
sector and civil society to explore possible scenarios for Kenya. This group used information gathered during the research (picture of now, analysis of key uncertainties and driving forces of the future) to generate
the four scenarios for Kenya.
Prior to the scenario building however, it was necessary to construct an agreed upon picture of now from the research findings. This was the focus of the third workshop.
Building an Agreed Picture of Now (July 20-24, 1999) -- Baringo, Kenya.
This workshop mapped
out the driving forces of the past as well as those of the future and attempted to create a structure of linkages between the various forces at play.
Creating Stories (August 15-21, 1999) -- Mombasa, Kenya.
At this workshop, a set of stories
were created and tested for plausibility. The draft stories benefited from a review and critique by a group of 'Oracles' who were brought in to assist the scenario team in developing the stories.
Refining the Stories (September 21-24, 1999) -- Amboseli, Kenya.
At this workshop, the
stories were completed and discussions held on how to use them in various sectors.
A third phase, that of disseminating the outcomes of the project is currently underway. See the 'What's New' page for the latest news regarding the dissemination and other outcomes of the project.
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