Why should a project like the Kenya Scenarios Project be relevant at this point in time of Kenya's history? Why should Kenyans concentrate on thinking about what future they wish to live in?

Like many other developing countries, Kenya faces a myriad of opportunities and challenges - both internal and external. How it deals with these opportunities and challenges will define the future of the country for many generations to come. In many respects, the process used to arrive at the choices is as important as the choices that are made. A society divided, as the cliche goes, cannot stand. Thus, Kenya needs to find the language and the common ground that can assist various groups and communities explore issues of mutual interest and forge pathways into the future.

The point of departure of the Kenya Scenarios Project team was the current economic, social and political condition of the country (1999). An analysis of the situation suggested that Kenya had reached the limits of its chosen political and economic models. An underlying assumption was that some of the major actors had confronted this situation and that their proposals and actions of recent times have been attempts at fixing things. Whilst these actors might understand the danger of irreversible decline, it is also important that they demonstrate an understanding of the implications of piecemeal reforms. Quick fixes cannot be relied upon and might actually make worsen the situation. If decline and decay are to be reversed, then it is necessary to revisit the models, engines and assumptions of development as well as the structures and institutions that Kenya has relied upon thus far.

The project team foresaw four possible outcomes for Kenya over the next 20 years which are expressed as stories -- El Niño, Maendeleo, Katiba and Flying Geese.

Building the stories was difficult process. After trying different methods, the team adopted a framework around the two major uncertainties and questions and questions that dominate the thinking of most Kenyans today: economic recovery and regaining political and institutional legitimacy.

According to the team, Kenya is characterized by politics of loyalty and expansion of personal support. This has led to the deliberate misuse of government policies, institutions and resources to rewards 'loyalty'. The economy is characterized by traditional technologies and is unable to meet the demands of a growing population. Subsequently, the increasing poverty and unemployment have lead to increased criminality and violence. The key questions the project team posed to itself were:

• "How might the economy recover and grow" (economic recovery) and
• "What will be the basis for political legitimacy" (institutional reorganization).

In response to these questions, Kenya might travel on at least four paths. These paths could be independent or they might meet along the way. The four stories describe them as separate paths, but a careful reader will discern meeting points along the way. The scenarios are by no means predictions nor are they meant to be definitive. They simply seek to stimulate the conversations about how Kenyans can shape the next decades in the country's life.

An analysis of the situation suggested that Kenya had reached the limits of its chosen political and economic models.

The key questions:

How might the economy recover and grow?
What will be the basis for political legitimacy?