Scenario Resources

The world of scenarios and scenario planning is rapidly expanding as more and more organizations begin to use scenarios within their strategy processes. The links offered below are meant to give an insight into some of the leading-edge organizations in scenario thinking, examples of large-scale (country level) scenario interventions and relevant literature.

Global Business Network
Created in 1987, the Global Business Network (GBN) is one of the premier scenario thinking resource networks in the world. GBN "engages in a collaborative exploration of the future, discovering the frontiers of knowledge and creating innovative tools for strategic action".

Destino Colombia Scenarios
Completed in 1998, the Destino Colombia scenarios offer four scenarios on the future of Colombia. They have been incisive in provoking widespread discussion in Colombia on what future faces the country (PDF File).

The Mont Fleur Scenarios
Kenya at the Crossroads was initially inspired by the success of the Mont Fleur (South Africa) scenarios which were completed in 1992. These scenarios sought to answer the question 'What will South Africa look like in 2002?' The Mont Fleur scenarios were one in a series of scenario exercises in South Africa at the turn of the 1990s (PDF File).

Democratic Dialogue Project - UNDP Regional Bureau for Latin America & the Caribbean
The UNDP-RBLAC has recently embarked on a major programme of civic scenario work in several countries of Central and Southern America. This site also has various resources that will be of use to those interested in the use of scenarios within civic settings.

African Futures Institute
African Futures Institute emerged from a project established by the UNDP in 1992 and which seeks to promote the institutionalization of a long-term perspective approach to development management in Africa; build and strengthen national capacity for long-term strategic management of the development process and develop regional and sub-regional long-term studies for Africa covering a wide range of strategic issues.

Essential Reading:

The Art of the Long View
'The Art of the Long View' by Peter Schwartz is one of the seminal publications on scenarios and scenario planning. Immensely readable and practical, this book is a must for all who are interested in the scenario building process and its background.

Learning from the Future
This book edited by Liam Fahey and Robert Randall is a valuable anthology of articles from experienced scenario thinkers and practitioners. Whilst most of the examples are taken from the corporate world, the lessons learnt are universal and can apply to many other situations as well.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
This book by Kees van der Heijden, focuses on the 'business idea' a tool aimed at making scenarios developed have an 'immediate and lasting effect'. It is a useful companion to strategists who are helping their organizations work through a set of scenarios and make choices for the future.

Some other interesting links: